Starting in 2027, the transport sector will be included in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). This decision aims to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the EU and support the Union’s climate goals (Die Bundesregierung). For general cargo logistics – which heavily relies on road transport – this marks a significant shift, bringing both major challenges and potential opportunities. In this article, we explore how EU carbon trading will impact the industry.
1. Higher Operating Costs Due to Rising CO₂ Prices
The EU ETS aims to pass the cost of carbon emissions onto those responsible. For logistics companies, this means they will need to purchase CO₂ certificates for their fuel consumption. Studies suggest this will significantly raise fuel prices. Short-term forecasts estimate that the CO₂ price in the transport sector could increase fuel costs by around €0.10 to €0.12 per liter by 2030 (Eurotransport). Depending on market developments and political decisions, this trend may continue into 2035 or 2040. According to an analysis by the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), diesel prices could rise to nearly €3 per liter by 2045 – further intensifying pressure on logistics companies (MCC Berlin). Logistics providers will have to decide whether to pass on these costs to customers or offset them through more efficient processes and innovative technologies such as alternative fuels or drive systems.
2. Sustainability as a Future Strategy
While the new regulations increase cost pressures, they also offer the opportunity to leverage sustainable technologies as a competitive advantage. Alternatives such as electric and hydrogen-powered trucks are becoming more attractive as CO₂ costs rise. The EU ETS may thus serve as an incentive to invest in zero-emission vehicles. A study by Agora Verkehrswende confirms this, showing that battery-electric trucks are already a cost-effective and competitive option for long-haul transport (Agora Verkehrswende).
3. Shift Toward Environmentally Friendly Transport Modesn
With the introduction of the EU ETS, a shift toward more environmentally friendly modes of transport such as rail or inland waterways is likely. These modes emit significantly less CO₂ than road transport and offer companies a way to reduce emissions – and thus costs (Bundesministerium für Digitales und Verkehr). Multimodal logistics, which combines multiple transport modes, is expected to gain further relevance in the future.
However, there are also critical concerns regarding the shift to rail freight. Obstacles include widespread disruptions due to construction work, a shortage of skilled labor, limited terminal capacity, and technical challenges such as non-craneable trailers. These issues make a significant switch to rail transport difficult and may hinder efforts to build more sustainable logistics strategies (TIMOCOM).
4. Efficiency Gains Through Digitalization
To offset rising operational costs driven by CO₂ pricing, many logistics companies will need to increasingly invest in digital solutions. Technologies such as route optimization, telematics, and big data analytics enable more efficient use of resources, reduce empty runs, and lower fuel consumption.
In the context of general cargo logistics, tour planning software can play a decisive role by optimizing delivery routes and significantly increasing overall logistics efficiency. By minimizing empty runs and reducing total mileage, the software lowers both operating costs and CO₂ emissions. These technologies allow companies not only to save costs but also to better meet their sustainability targets. Smart route planning, in particular, helps companies maintain competitiveness in the face of rising CO₂ prices.
5. Market Consolidation and Strategic Partnerships
For smaller logistics providers, rising cost pressures and the need to invest in new technologies pose a particular challenge. Strategic partnerships can help these companies remain competitive, as larger firms benefit from economies of scale and are better equipped to absorb financial burdens (Gipfel der Logistikweisen). Sharing resources such as warehouse space or transport capacity can reduce costs and improve efficiency. Moreover, partnerships can provide easier access to new technologies and foster innovation.
6. Customer Expectations and Carbon-Neutral Supply Chains
More and more companies are demanding sustainable transport solutions from their logistics providers. Companies such as IKEA and Unilever have already announced plans to make their supply chains carbon-neutral and will only work with logistics partners that implement relevant measures (Logistik Heute, Unilever) .
For logistics service providers, this means transparency and sustainability are becoming key competitive factors. The ability to accurately measure and report the CO₂ footprint of transports is becoming a critical criterion for winning contracts.
Conclusion: EU Carbon Trading as a Catalyst for Transformation in General Cargo Logistics
The inclusion of the transport sector in the EU ETS will initially present a major challenge for general cargo logistics due to rising fossil fuel costs. However, companies that invest early in sustainable technologies and more efficient processes stand to benefit in the long term. Emissions trading therefore represents not just risk, but also a major opportunity to become a frontrunner in a climate-friendly logistics industry.